U.S. advertising spending is projected to grow by 6.6% in the coming year, excluding political advertising expenses anticipated for 2025. This growth rate is a notable decrease from the estimated 11% increase observed in the past twelve months, as detailed in Madison & Wall’s latest analysis.

These findings align with a global forecast from Ebiquity, a media consultancy, which indicates that nearly half (48%) of marketers plan to boost their media budgets for the next year. Digital video and Connected TV (CTV) are expected to benefit the most from this increase in spending.

Moderate growth is expected to be concentrated among a few market giants, particularly those in Silicon Valley, who are poised to capitalize on this trend.

According to Madison & Wall, the programmatic advertising sector reflects a stronger-than-anticipated performance. This suggests a moderate growth trajectory rather than an outright downturn. Programmatic spending is expected to continue expanding, particularly in digital formats that offer measurable results. However, independent ad tech faces mounting competition from major players like Amazon and Google.

The revised forecast follows a robust Q3 performance, wherein advertising revenues surged by 13% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth since early 2022. Digital advertising alone rose by 21%, elevating its share of total ad spending to 72%. This trend reinforces the dominance of channels that leverage first-party data, closed-loop measurement, and AI-driven optimization.

Looking ahead, Madison & Wall anticipates that favorable economic conditions will persist into 2026, despite increasing policy and geopolitical risks. Current forecasts suggest a real GDP growth of approximately 1.8% and inflation around 2.8%, leading to nominal GDP growth estimates of about 4 to 5%. While the link between economic growth and advertising has softened, the firm believes that nominal growth remains a significant indicator of advertising demand. They expect a gradual slowdown in advertising growth instead of a sharp decline.

Within this context, programmatic advertising is likely to increase its share of transactions in the open internet. Madison & Wall forecasts programmatic revenues from the open internet to rise by 4.4% in 2026, accounting for 74% of total open internet ad revenues. This growth is expected to be spurred by advancements in programmatic connected TV, digital out-of-home advertising, and digital audio, each projected to experience double-digit growth as automation proliferates in newer digital formats.

However, overall open internet advertising revenues are predicted to remain relatively stable. Thus, the anticipated growth in programmatic advertising for 2026 results primarily from a shift in purchasing methods rather than an increase in overall spending. Revenue tied to digital platforms may experience small declines due to ongoing pricing pressures and fluctuating demand outside of major platforms.

In his assessment at year’s end, Karsten Weide from W Media Research highlighted ongoing conflicts within the ad tech ecosystem of the open internet. He pointed out that disputes over transaction IDs (TIDs) between various industry players have escalated into broader contestations over governance in this space. In contrast, closed digital platforms are expected to retain a disproportionate share of incremental advertising expenditures.

Madison & Wall anticipates robust growth in commerce media (16%), social media (15%), and search (8%) in 2026. The firm expects ad tech platforms to introduce additional AI-powered purchasing tools designed to mimic the automated, outcome-oriented models that thrive within closed environments.

As advertisers increasingly value price and performance, often sacrificing transparency and control, spending is shifting towards platforms offering integrated creative, optimization, and measurement solutions. Additionally, the trend toward direct collaborations between advertisers and major media companies continues to grow, diminishing reliance on agency-managed purchasing systems. Madison & Wall predicts that AI advancements will enhance this trend, providing a range of workflow tools to the industry.

While search and commerce advertising demonstrate structural resilience, publishers operating in the open internet will face considerable challenges in adapting their business models. In this landscape, programmatic advertising emerges as an essential transactional layer—gaining significance but functioning within a more constrained market.

Insights from Industry Experts

One anonymous staff member from Omnicom expressed dissatisfaction with their company’s shift away from creative work, indicating a preference for data-driven methodologies. This sentiment captures the ongoing tension in the industry as talent reassesses its alignment with organizational values.

Key Statistics to Note

According to the 2026 Integral Ad Science Industry Pulse Report:

• 88% of media professionals prioritize digital video for advertising and media planning in 2026, surpassing display and audio.
• 84% view social media as a critical environment for investment and strategy next year.
• 61% express enthusiasm about the opportunities presented by generative AI in digital media and advertising.
• 83% are concerned about the implications of AI-generated content on social media and the necessity for vigilant oversight.

Recent Trends in Advertising

WPP’s estimates indicate that spending on commerce media will surpass that of TV this year, projecting it to represent 15.6% of global ad spending in 2025 compared to 14.6% for linear and connected TV.

Christopher Francia, director of product development at Attention Arc, discusses the ongoing debate over the role of AI agents in programmatic ad buying, indicating a general skepticism about entrusting these responsibilities to large language model-based agents.

Emerging Developments in the Industry

Google has informed advertisers of its plans to integrate ads into its AI chatbot, Gemini, anticipated for 2026. This development is a significant step in evolving advertising landscapes.

As AI continues to evolve, challenges such as the resurgence of MFA in advertising are also emerging. Zefr CEO Rich Raddon highlights the need for brands to navigate these new complexities effectively.

Furthermore, X (formerly Twitter) recently faced a €120 million fine from the European Commission, marking a significant moment in regulatory scrutiny following its inaugural penalty under the Digital Services Act.

Finally, a recent legal case illustrates ongoing tensions between advertisers and Google, as a small business claims the tech giant has prioritized profit over integrity, misleading customers through a complicated pricing structure.

U.S. Advertising Spending Trends for 2026

The landscape of U.S. advertising spending is evolving, with projections indicating a growth rate of 6.6% for the upcoming year. This marks a significant decrease from the previous year’s estimate of 11%. The shift reflects changing market dynamics as brands adapt to new strategies and consumer behaviors.

The Global Perspective

Similar trends are emerging on a global scale, as highlighted by media consultancy Ebiquity. Approximately 48% of marketers anticipate increasing their media expenditure in the next year, particularly favoring digital video and connected TV (CTV) platforms. This shift underlines the growing emphasis on digital channels that offer robust engagement metrics.

Digital Dominance and Programmatic Growth

Despite forecasts of moderate growth, the benefits appear to concentrate within major tech entities, particularly those in Silicon Valley. This trend is underpinned by a stronger-than-expected performance in programmatic advertising, which continues to evolve and adapt to digital formats that showcase measurable results.

Trends in Programmatic Advertising

Programmatic advertising is set for continued expansion, with anticipated revenue growth of 4.4% over the open internet. Digital channels such as CTV, digital out-of-home, and digital audio are expected to see double-digit growth as automation takes the lead in these newer formats. However, the overall revenue across the open internet is projected to remain stable, driven mainly by a transformation in buying methods rather than an increase in overall spending.

Ad Spending Insights for 2026

Looking further down the line, economic conditions should remain favorable for advertising in 2026, amid rising policy uncertainties. Consensus estimates suggest real GDP growth of around 1.8% and inflation near 2.8%. These figures indicate that, while the relationship between economic growth and ad spending has become less pronounced, nominal growth remains an important indicator of advertising demand.

Value of Direct Relationships and Tools

Advertisers are increasingly prioritizing pricing and performance, often sacrificing transparency and control for the sake of efficiency. As a result, direct engagements with large media owners are on the rise, diminishing reliance on traditional agency-managed buying systems. This trend is further enhanced by the proliferation of AI-driven tools that facilitate workflow and optimize ad spending.

Challenges for Open Internet Publishers

As search and commerce advertising show resilience, publishers on the open internet face significant pressure to adapt their business models. Programmatic advertising continues to emerge as a central transaction layer, growing in value but operating within a more constrained market landscape moving forward.

Conclusion

The evolving advertising landscape presents both challenges and opportunities. As brands navigate shifting consumer preferences and technological advancements, the focus on effective digital strategies will likely dictate future success. Programmatic solutions, especially in growing digital formats, will play a pivotal role in shaping advertising expenditures in the years to come.